Craps Numbers Probability
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*Craps Numbers Probability Numbers
*Calculating Probability Of Winning Craps
*Craps Numbers Probability Calculator
*Probability Number Line
The dealer will move the odds bet into the same box as the Come number. If the point number is rolled before the next 7, the Pass or Come wager will be paid off at even money, but the odds bet will be paid at true odds of rolling that number - 6-5 on a 6 or 8, 3-2 on 5 or 9, or 2-1 on 4 or 10. Nevertheless, you can quickly become a skilled craps player by understanding the fundamentals of craps odds and the house edge on each bet in the game. For example, the chances of hitting a Pass bet is 49.3% but the payout is 1/1. This difference of 1.41% is the house edge on that bet. Calculate Craps Odds and Probabilities If you would like to calculate the odds of rolling a certain combination, just take the number of possible combinations of that roll and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes. For example, rolling a 7 has six combinations. Therefore 6 divided by 36 would be a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a seven.riverbedIf I make 6 consecutive dont’ pass/don’t come bets, what is the probability that there will be a repeat number (4,5,6,8,9,10) without a seven-out? Two repeats? Show your work! And if you can calculate this, can you recommend a basic book on this type of probability problem? I will study your answer until I sort-of understand it. Thank you.mustangsally
If I make 6 consecutive dont’ pass/don’t come bets, what is the probability that there will be a repeat number (4,5,6,8,9,10) without a seven-out? Two repeats? Show your work! And if you can calculate this, can you recommend a basic book on this type of probability problem? I will study your answer until I sort-of understand it. San manuel casino events. Thank you.Wow!
You are talking about a lot of states in a Markov Chain.
I am sure someone could do the math, but why?
I would sim this. Would be very easy to do.
Plus, we could get lots of info from it.
Maybe tomorrow if I’m slow at work.
Lots of Grad parties this week!Craps Numbers Probability NumbersI Heart Vi HartriverbedThank you! I would sure appreciate it.ThatDonGuyThis sounds like something that needs to be solved by brute force.
For the ’one-repeat’ problem, determine each possible set of six point numbers with one repeat (e.g. {4,8,10,5,8,6}), then calculate each number’s probability of both being a point number and not sevening out (for 4, it would be 1/12 (chance of rolling 4 as the point) x 1/3 (chance of rolling another 4 before a 7) = 1/36).
There are 6 possible numbers to be the duplicate; for each one, there are 5 numbers that would now not appear at all; for each of these 30 groups of numbers, there are 360 permutations, although each permutation within a group has the same probability. Figure them out, and then add them up.
This assumes that, by ’a repeat number,’ no point appears more than twice. If a point can appear more than twice, you need to check the groups of 3-1-1-1, 4-1-1, 5-1, and 6 as well; it sounds like it’s easier to check all 46,656 permutations of six point numbers (which would solve the ’two repeat numbers’ problem - and, for that matter, the ’three repeat numbers’ problem - at the same time.)
To help you out:
The probability of rolling, and then making, a point of 4 is 1/36, as shown earlier.
For a 10, it is also 1/36.
For a 5 (or a 9), it is 1/9 x 2/5 = 2/45.
For a 6 (or an 8), it is 5/36 x 5/11 = 25/396.
If, in your six rolls, you include the possibility of rolling a 2, 3, 7, 11, 12 as your first number, I get this:
1 duplicate point happens 1 time in 16.3
2 duplicate points happens 1 time in 27.55
3 duplicate points happens 1 time in 583.2mustangsallyremoved
silly
SallyThatDonGuyI think some terms need to be defined.
Do ’repeat numbers’ need to be consecutive? That is, if, for example, the six come-out rolls are 6, 4, 7, 6, 10, 11, are the two 6s considered ’one repeat’?
What if the same number is rolled three times - is that considered one repeat or two?
My calculations were based on the answers being (a) no and (b) one repeat. For example, 6, 4, 7, 6, 10, 6 would be ’one repeated number,’ as would 8, 8, 8, 8, 10, 4.mustangsallyThe OP is making, say $5, bets on the dont’s for 6 rolls, so a repeat is a loss and per shooter before the 7out.
This can be solved exactly by a very large Markov Chain. Too much work for me.
By a simulation is faster and easier IMO.
For example, 6, 4, 7, 6, 10, 6.
$5 don’t pass bet: roll 6 = point established
$5 don’t come bet: roll 4 = bet moves to don’t come 4
$5 don’t come bet: roll 7 = 7out.
don’t come bet loses
wins both don’t pass and don’t come 4.
The 7 is a 7out. So, no more rolls after the 7 for that shooter.
No repeating numbers to cause a dont pass or a dont come point number to lose
That is how I see the OP question
SallyriverbedCalculating Probability Of Winning CrapsYes, this is very helpful. I am a Mac user now, but I used to have WinCraps and I just loved it. I’m thinking about getting a used PC just for the purpose of using WinCraps. If I understand this, there is a 6l% chance of getting no repeat in six rolls, 28.6% of one, 9% of 2, and 1% of three. I once saw a guy come-out with 5 11s, so I guess he was more than ’one in a million’. Many thanks.mustangsallyremoved
silly
SallyriverbedCraps Numbers Probability Calculator
Good idea! Geant casino la valentine marseille.
No you are understanding wrong.
The 61% is for all shooters.
That is what the first data table is for.
All shooters with a hand length of 2,3,4,5 and 6.
The second table is just for the shooters (57.7%) that did make it to the 6th roll.
I did not let them roll any further.
So about 62% of the shooters that did roll that 6th roll had at least 1 repeat.
Now I also did not include the natural losers for the dont’s.
You only asked about repeats.
Wind creek crystal casino aruba resort. Here is a link to my text file and Excel 2007 file if you have Excel for my second simulation. It is 100k shooters in size. I deleated the first one on accident.
text file 4MB right-click to save or click to view in your browser window
Excel file 2.2MB
You can play with the data.
Column Headers
#: shooter number
rolls:
DPLoss: Natural loss (7,11) for DPass
DP12: Push
DPPtL: Point loss for DPass
DCL: DCome natural loss (7,11)
DC4L:
DC5L:
DC6L:
DC8L:
DC9L:
DC10L:
DC12: DCome 12 push
TLoss: total unit loss
TWins: total unit win
DPN: wins DPass 2 and 3
DCN: wins DCome 2 and 3
SallyProbability Number Line
*Page 1 of 2
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*Craps Numbers Probability Numbers
*Calculating Probability Of Winning Craps
*Craps Numbers Probability Calculator
*Probability Number Line
The dealer will move the odds bet into the same box as the Come number. If the point number is rolled before the next 7, the Pass or Come wager will be paid off at even money, but the odds bet will be paid at true odds of rolling that number - 6-5 on a 6 or 8, 3-2 on 5 or 9, or 2-1 on 4 or 10. Nevertheless, you can quickly become a skilled craps player by understanding the fundamentals of craps odds and the house edge on each bet in the game. For example, the chances of hitting a Pass bet is 49.3% but the payout is 1/1. This difference of 1.41% is the house edge on that bet. Calculate Craps Odds and Probabilities If you would like to calculate the odds of rolling a certain combination, just take the number of possible combinations of that roll and divide it by the total number of possible outcomes. For example, rolling a 7 has six combinations. Therefore 6 divided by 36 would be a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a seven.riverbedIf I make 6 consecutive dont’ pass/don’t come bets, what is the probability that there will be a repeat number (4,5,6,8,9,10) without a seven-out? Two repeats? Show your work! And if you can calculate this, can you recommend a basic book on this type of probability problem? I will study your answer until I sort-of understand it. Thank you.mustangsally
If I make 6 consecutive dont’ pass/don’t come bets, what is the probability that there will be a repeat number (4,5,6,8,9,10) without a seven-out? Two repeats? Show your work! And if you can calculate this, can you recommend a basic book on this type of probability problem? I will study your answer until I sort-of understand it. San manuel casino events. Thank you.Wow!
You are talking about a lot of states in a Markov Chain.
I am sure someone could do the math, but why?
I would sim this. Would be very easy to do.
Plus, we could get lots of info from it.
Maybe tomorrow if I’m slow at work.
Lots of Grad parties this week!Craps Numbers Probability NumbersI Heart Vi HartriverbedThank you! I would sure appreciate it.ThatDonGuyThis sounds like something that needs to be solved by brute force.
For the ’one-repeat’ problem, determine each possible set of six point numbers with one repeat (e.g. {4,8,10,5,8,6}), then calculate each number’s probability of both being a point number and not sevening out (for 4, it would be 1/12 (chance of rolling 4 as the point) x 1/3 (chance of rolling another 4 before a 7) = 1/36).
There are 6 possible numbers to be the duplicate; for each one, there are 5 numbers that would now not appear at all; for each of these 30 groups of numbers, there are 360 permutations, although each permutation within a group has the same probability. Figure them out, and then add them up.
This assumes that, by ’a repeat number,’ no point appears more than twice. If a point can appear more than twice, you need to check the groups of 3-1-1-1, 4-1-1, 5-1, and 6 as well; it sounds like it’s easier to check all 46,656 permutations of six point numbers (which would solve the ’two repeat numbers’ problem - and, for that matter, the ’three repeat numbers’ problem - at the same time.)
To help you out:
The probability of rolling, and then making, a point of 4 is 1/36, as shown earlier.
For a 10, it is also 1/36.
For a 5 (or a 9), it is 1/9 x 2/5 = 2/45.
For a 6 (or an 8), it is 5/36 x 5/11 = 25/396.
If, in your six rolls, you include the possibility of rolling a 2, 3, 7, 11, 12 as your first number, I get this:
1 duplicate point happens 1 time in 16.3
2 duplicate points happens 1 time in 27.55
3 duplicate points happens 1 time in 583.2mustangsallyremoved
silly
SallyThatDonGuyI think some terms need to be defined.
Do ’repeat numbers’ need to be consecutive? That is, if, for example, the six come-out rolls are 6, 4, 7, 6, 10, 11, are the two 6s considered ’one repeat’?
What if the same number is rolled three times - is that considered one repeat or two?
My calculations were based on the answers being (a) no and (b) one repeat. For example, 6, 4, 7, 6, 10, 6 would be ’one repeated number,’ as would 8, 8, 8, 8, 10, 4.mustangsallyThe OP is making, say $5, bets on the dont’s for 6 rolls, so a repeat is a loss and per shooter before the 7out.
This can be solved exactly by a very large Markov Chain. Too much work for me.
By a simulation is faster and easier IMO.
For example, 6, 4, 7, 6, 10, 6.
$5 don’t pass bet: roll 6 = point established
$5 don’t come bet: roll 4 = bet moves to don’t come 4
$5 don’t come bet: roll 7 = 7out.
don’t come bet loses
wins both don’t pass and don’t come 4.
The 7 is a 7out. So, no more rolls after the 7 for that shooter.
No repeating numbers to cause a dont pass or a dont come point number to lose
That is how I see the OP question
SallyriverbedCalculating Probability Of Winning CrapsYes, this is very helpful. I am a Mac user now, but I used to have WinCraps and I just loved it. I’m thinking about getting a used PC just for the purpose of using WinCraps. If I understand this, there is a 6l% chance of getting no repeat in six rolls, 28.6% of one, 9% of 2, and 1% of three. I once saw a guy come-out with 5 11s, so I guess he was more than ’one in a million’. Many thanks.mustangsallyremoved
silly
SallyriverbedCraps Numbers Probability Calculator
Good idea! Geant casino la valentine marseille.
No you are understanding wrong.
The 61% is for all shooters.
That is what the first data table is for.
All shooters with a hand length of 2,3,4,5 and 6.
The second table is just for the shooters (57.7%) that did make it to the 6th roll.
I did not let them roll any further.
So about 62% of the shooters that did roll that 6th roll had at least 1 repeat.
Now I also did not include the natural losers for the dont’s.
You only asked about repeats.
Wind creek crystal casino aruba resort. Here is a link to my text file and Excel 2007 file if you have Excel for my second simulation. It is 100k shooters in size. I deleated the first one on accident.
text file 4MB right-click to save or click to view in your browser window
Excel file 2.2MB
You can play with the data.
Column Headers
#: shooter number
rolls:
DPLoss: Natural loss (7,11) for DPass
DP12: Push
DPPtL: Point loss for DPass
DCL: DCome natural loss (7,11)
DC4L:
DC5L:
DC6L:
DC8L:
DC9L:
DC10L:
DC12: DCome 12 push
TLoss: total unit loss
TWins: total unit win
DPN: wins DPass 2 and 3
DCN: wins DCome 2 and 3
SallyProbability Number Line
*Page 1 of 2
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